The first round of the snap parliamentary election in France has shown a significant increase in votes for the anti-immigrant National Rally party, with President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance coming in third place. Early polling data from national broadcaster France 2 indicates that National Rally (RN) won 34% of the vote while the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance got 28.1%. Macron’s centrist Together bloc garnered 20.3%, according to initial projections. A clearer picture of the results is expected to emerge after 10 p.m. local time. Candidates are only elected in the first round if they receive an absolute majority of votes and get more than 25% of the registered local electorate’s support.
If no candidate meets the standard of an absolute majority in the first round, a second round of voting is held with the top two candidates and any other candidates who secured more than 12.5% of registered voters’ support. The candidate that wins the most votes in the second round then wins the seat. The second round of voting on July 7 will be crucial as it will determine the final outcome of the election. Antonio Barroso, deputy director of Research at Teneo, highlights the importance of the second round as first-round victories tend to say little about the overall results.
Ahead of the first ballot, French voter polls suggested that the hard-right National Rally party would win around 35% of the vote, followed by the leftist NFP alliance and then a coalition of pro-Macron parties in third place. National Rally is expected to significantly increase the number of seats it has in France’s 577-seat parliament, the National Assembly. However, the Sunday projections suggest that no party has won an outright majority of at least 289 seats after the initial round of voting, pointing to a hung parliament and a period of political uncertainty.
The election outcome could lead to a scenario where President Emmanuel Macron may have to elect a new prime minister from National Rally, should the party receive significant support despite not obtaining an absolute majority in the final vote. This could potentially lead to a “cohabitation” situation where government functioning becomes tricky. This has raised concerns among economists as to how the election results could impact the euro zone’s second-largest economy. Macron took a bold move by calling for a snap ballot after his party suffered a defeat in the European Parliament elections. However, the outcomes of the election might not have turned out as expected, with Macron’s political rivals gaining strength.
The French snap parliamentary election has brought about unexpected results that could have far-reaching implications for the country’s political landscape and economic stability. The second round of voting will be crucial in determining the final outcome, and the potential scenario of a hung parliament could bring about challenges in governance and decision-making. The rise of the National Rally party and the shifting political dynamics in France signal a period of change and uncertainty for the nation.
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