As September approaches, investors are getting ready for Apple’s announcement of new iPhone and Apple Watch models. While excitement typically builds up ahead of these product launches, history indicates that September tends to be a challenging month for Apple’s stock. Over the past 10 years, Apple shares have averaged a loss of 3.5% in September, following gains of 6.5% in July and 4.8% in August. Despite gaining 3.1% in August and almost 19% year-to-date, the upcoming product launches could impact Apple’s stock performance.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley are optimistic about this year’s announcement and believe it could lead to better stock performance. They expect the introduction of Apple Intelligence into the iPhone 16 model to drive demand for the company’s artificial intelligence-related advancements. While past iPhone launch events have led to temporary underperformance by Apple’s stock, the analysts see potential for a different outcome this time. Historically, Apple has outperformed the market when product replacement cycles shorten, and the analysts anticipate a contraction in iPhone replacement cycles through fiscal 2026.
Morgan Stanley has maintained a “top pick” rating on Apple, with an overweight rating and a $273 price target, suggesting a 19.2% potential upside. On the other hand, UBS analyst David Vogt has a neutral rating on Apple shares, along with a $190 price target, indicating a possible 17% decrease over the next year. Vogt expressed concern about the low consumer purchases of iPhone models in August and the risk associated with the September product launch.
Apple’s iPhones have been a significant portion of the company’s total sales, accounting for about 46% in the fiscal third quarter. The analyst at UBS highlighted the challenge of meeting sales targets in September, especially with the beta release of Apple Intelligence and limited availability in Europe. The analyst estimated that a significant increase in sell-through would be required to meet sales expectations, posing a high bar for Apple to reach.
While September has historically been a tough month for Apple’s stock performance, analysts are divided on the potential outcome this year. As the tech giant prepares to unveil its new products, investors will be closely watching for any indication of market reaction. Whether history repeats itself or Apple manages to defy expectations remains to be seen.
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