The UK economy showed no signs of growth in July, contrary to the expectations of economists. The Office for National Statistics reported that GDP remained stagnant following the election of the Labour government. This lack of growth for two consecutive months was a surprise to many experts who had predicted a 0.2% expansion.
Despite the overall stagnation, there were some positive signs in specific sectors. The services sector demonstrated “longer-term strength” with a 0.5% expansion over the three months leading up to July. However, this growth was offset by declines in advertising, architecture, and engineering fields. Manufacturing output also suffered due to poor performance from car and machinery companies, while the construction sector experienced a decline as well.
Impact on Interest Rates
The disappointing economic performance is expected to influence interest rates set by the Bank of England. The central bank had previously raised rates to combat inflation, but market expectations suggest that rates will remain unchanged in the upcoming meeting. However, a rate cut in November is anticipated, with rates potentially dropping to 4.75% by then.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged the challenges faced by the UK economy and highlighted the need for gradual change. She emphasized that two quarters of positive growth do not compensate for the long-standing stagnation experienced over the past 14 years. This acknowledgment suggests a cautious approach to addressing economic issues.
The UK economy’s performance in July reflects a complex situation with both positive and negative elements. While certain sectors demonstrated growth over the past few months, others experienced setbacks that contributed to overall stagnation. The outlook on interest rates and the cautious political response underscore the need for strategic planning to address economic challenges effectively.
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